Thursday, November 1, 2012

Breeders Cup. Day 1

Well I am among the masses of horse racing fans that are anticipating Fridays event a hell of a lot more than Saturdays. The Ladie's Classic is the strongest field probably in the 29 year history of the event. We have two undefeated fillies and last years winner. All but one entrants have also one grade one races.

Since I've got a few more hours to go on this plane. Here's my take on Fridays BC races

BC Juvenille Sprint
My money is most likely going on Merit Man. He is going out at 8-5. He was his last start at 6 furlongs on the SA track. He also won his start before that at Del Mar. Super Ninety Nine who is currently 5-2 won at 7 furlongs at this track is also intriguing but a maiden special start does not convince me.  Hazardous, who is currently at 8-1 (a phenom price) has won 2 of 3, his latest at SA going 6 furlongs. It was against claiming company but the final time was 1:10, the same at Merit Man's last win. The last horse in this race that intrigues me is Ceiling Kitty. The biggest thing about the Breeder's Cup is never count out the Europeans. Although she has only won at 5 furlong distances, they do not use lasix in Europe which some think could be to her advantage.  She also has much more experience than most of the field.

BC Marathon
This is to me a very difficult race to handicap because its not necessarily how good the horse is, it's about the horse and rider combo making it the distance. Last year this race was won by Afleet Again who went out at 41-1 and paid out over $85. I know this because I won a decent amount of money on him. But that just reinforces the fact that this race is anyone's game. Atigun, who is going to go out at a low price, because he is a somewhat popular horse will be included in my betting because I think he finished a very strong third in the Belmont Stakes and maybe the extra distance is what he wants.  Also, this is a BC race and Mike Smith has the mount, easy math there.  Eldaafer won this very race at this very track in 2009, but he's also now 7 and probably not in the form that he was then.  Fame and Glory, the British import can run all day. He hasn't won in his last 3 starts but I'm definitely putting money on him, he's run from 1 1/4 to 2 1/2 miles.   When it comes to Jaycito I think the Zayats just want to enter as many of their horses as possible in the BC, I'm not even looking at them.   Juniper Pass has won at this distance on this track, but that was back in 2010.  If any of these horses can get back to their older form than it can be anyone's game.

BC Juviele Fillies Turf
Well in this race I like Spring Venture who is 3-0 at Woodbine. Other than that my money is going on the Euros (which ones is another question). They dominate in BC turf events, so I'm just going to play them. In this field we have, Sky Lantern, Flotilla, The Gold Cheongsam and Infanta Branca.  But the thing is, these are two year olds, they are babies, so it can be anyone's game.

BC Juvenile Fillies
I really like Beholder in this race. She is coming off of a win at SA and he out before that she lost by a head to Executiveprivilege. The one hole that she is in does make me nervous, but hopefully she can over come it. Baffert's super horse Executiveprivilege has had rumored subpar works, which makes me a little eary about her. She is 5-0 and a local horse who has won on the SA track ( and at the 1 1/16th distance) but if she's not working well, she's not working well.  The Pletcher/Stonestreet undefeated due of Dreaming of Julia and Kauai Katie just shipped in yesterday which does not impress me. Kauai Katie has not run more than 6 furlongs so I'm not 100% sure why she is in this race and not the sprint. Dreaming of Julia I thought was impressive in the Fizette, which is run at a mile, I do not think the extra 1/16 of a mile will be a problem for her. She is my pick from the undefeated starters.

BC Fillie and Mare Turf
Well for starters, Todd Pletcher, since when does In Lingerie run on turf? Did I miss something?  For this race I'm going back to good old Mike Smith, on Lady of Shamrock.  She is 5 for 6 this year and has    Won on this track plenty.  Nahrain, the Darley breed shipper was second in this race last year and she won her last start a Belmont.  The Fugue is also on my radar. This Euro has hit the board in 6 of her 7 lifetime starts. Ridasiyna the French import is also 4 for 5 this year.  Zagora who was over in Europe and is now in the states in Chad Brown also intrigues me. Her pictures look great and she got second in her last start and first in the start before that.

Ladies Classic
It's anyone's race. I think Royal Delta will probably win it, but I personally want Awesome Feather or My Miss Aurellia to win .  That's al my input this is going to be the best race of the whole weekend.



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